INTRODUCTION

Converging technologies are in the process of completely transforming all aspects of 6 industries – construction, finance, manufacturing, health, retail, and transport – with a significant reduction in the need for human labor.

In 2018, we made 9 forecasts of impactful changes within 10-20 years (or less), some of which have already occurred. In 2020, we performed a small survey to get the current opinions of a few medical experts. They rated the percentage probabilities. (You’ll note a wide range of results.)

• All genetic diseases will be eradicated (although some new ones may develop) by use of CRISPR gene editing. This has already started to happen. (20-80%)
• We will have sensors (either embedded or worn externally) that constantly monitor our health, and immediately start a remedial process when something is wrong: from ordering medications, to booking an appointment with a medical specialist, or dispatching an ambulance. (70-95%)
• Medication dosage and anesthetics will be customized for our personal situation: weight, age, medical history, genetic makeup, etc. (90-100%)
• Medication will be delivered at the required frequency and dosage from automatic dispensers within or attached to the body. (30-90%)
• All medical testing (blood, imaging, etc.) will be automated, with analyses confirmed (at least for a while) by specialists who may reside remotely. (60-100%)
• All surgery will be minimally invasive or replaced by the use of nanobots. Some surgery will be performed remotely. (70-80$)
• Defective organs will be replaced by transplants built from our own stem cells. (50-90$)
• Limbs and eyes will be replaced by brain-controlled prostheses that operate more effectively than human versions. The $6 Million Dollar Man and the Bionic Woman may no longer be fiction! (20-80%)
• Living to an age of 130-150 years will be normal with a good quality of life. (10-80%)

The converging technologies, each with accelerating development, which will make this vision a reality, include AI, Robotics, Nanotechnology, and Biotechnology (especially gene editing – via CRISPR-Cas9 and other proteins – with its enormous potential and considerable dangers).

The impact of these technologies on the medical profession is considerable. As with all professions, lower-level functions will be replaced by automation, but so will many specialists. There is already a suggestion that medical schools stop training radiologists (see below) as the ability of AI routines to analyze medical images is starting to match that of specialists, and will soon exceed it. As the above vision starts to be implemented, the need for general practitioners will reduce. (From as far back as 1979, studies have shown that people are more honest in responding to computer terminals – or robots – than to nurses or GPs.)

The jobs in the medical profession that will likely last longer are those requiring direct patient contact, whether physically or virtually. So psychiatrists and psychologists will be around for the foreseeable future, and may be more in demand as society learns to cope with a world without paid work. (On the other hand, a client of Nick’s was developing a computer-based program to provide cognitive behavioral therapy about 15 years ago.). While the need for nurses and administrators in doctors’ offices will disappear, nurses will still be needed to provide hospital and community patient care.

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